TIANJIN, China, September 21, 2023 – China’s appetite for natural gas is set to grow significantly in 2023, with a forecasted 8% surge, reaching a total of 396.4 billion cubic meters (bcm), according to an analyst from the research division of state-owned oil giant CNOOC. This announcement was made at a conference held on Thursday.
Xie Xuguang, representing CNOOC Gas and Power Group’s research center, revealed that imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are anticipated to soar to 70.79 million metric tons this year, marking a robust 10.9% increase over the previous year. Additionally, imports of pipeline gas are projected to reach 69.5 bcm, reflecting a 10.7% rise compared to 2022.
The growth forecast provided by CNOOC stands out as more optimistic than those of three other industry analysts. This upward projection follows an uncommon decline in gas demand in 2022, with Chinese demand dropping by 1%. This decline was attributed to strict COVID-19 controls and led to China temporarily ceding its position as the top LNG importer to Japan.
Estimates from ICIS, Energy Aspects, and SIA Energy earlier this week suggested gas demand growth in China for this year would range from 5.7% to 7.4%.
Xie Xuguang also shared a long-term perspective, stating that China’s total gas demand is expected to peak in 2040, reaching 700 bcm, in line with a previous forecast by state major Sinopec.
In terms of domestic production, China is on track to produce 227.8 bcm of natural gas in 2023, representing a 4.6% increase compared to the previous year. This boost in domestic production is aimed at meeting the rising demand for natural gas within the country.
To accommodate the growing demand, China is actively expanding its LNG receiving capacity. Xie Xuguang indicated that by the end of 2023, this capacity will reach 139.3 million tons annually and is projected to further expand to 181.8 million tons by 2025.
CNOOC emphasized that China’s reliance on foreign gas imports is expected to grow in the coming years. By 2025, imports of both LNG and piped gas are anticipated to account for 46% of domestic demand, and this figure is projected to rise to 49% by 2035.
The increasing demand for natural gas in China underscores the country’s commitment to cleaner energy sources and its strategic efforts to balance domestic production and international imports to meet its growing energy needs.